Webnicher Blogs

In the aftermath of Ondoy’s and Pepeng’s onslaught, when people started picking up the pieces even until everything has normalized, many will be doing some rethinking. Many will be more prepared to face calamities such as those twin typhoonss at least in the short run and many will consider relocating in the long run. Some, especially the affluent are probably already in a frantic search for flood free real estate.

The recent flooding brought about by tropical storm Ondoy and typhoon Pepeng reached unprecedented depth and extent. It also exposed the inadequacy and ineptness of the current land use and development policies of the government. As pointed out by Jun Palafox, a renowned architect and urban planner, Metro Manila’s vulnerability to flooding had long been identified. As early as 1977, a study sponsored by World Bank on land use and development noted the possibility of heavy flooding on exactly the same areas badly affected by Ondoy floods. The study declared these areas unsuitable for development and yet the government did not seem to consider it as evidenced by mushrooming of real estate development in those areas. As a result, a lot of subdivisions, from low end to high end, in Marikina, Pasig, Cainta and other neighboring areas were inundated when an unuasual flood such as Ondoy hit the area. It also seems that flooding history considered in the development of those areas were not long enough, perhaps up to 25 years only when the more advanced countries consider more than 100 years. PAGASA said flooding brought by Ondoy was something we have not seen in 40 years which proves the inadequacy of design considerations in many development projects.

With this experience in mind, how do we now select the real estate properties we want to invest in without relying solely on what the developers tell us, at least initially? The answer lies in the fact that advanced information technology particularly the Internet has empowered people with information never before available. Just look at Google Earth. This allows us to see the earth surface at any angle, providing geographic information at the click of a mouse. Ten years ago, you have to pay a lot of money to obtain a single stellite image which needs to be analysed first before you can obtain meaningful information. Now, all you have to do is go to Google Earth and focus on a particular area of interest. Information such as coordinates, elevation, terrain, road networks, political boundaries among others, can be easily obtained. This tool will help us greatly in the preliminary site selection for any real estate investment. As an example, let’s take a look at the panoramic view of Marikina Valley below, generated using Google Earth:

From the image above, we can see the extent of the valley with Marikina River and Manggahan floodway at the center and the higher grounds of San Mateo on the upper right. Visually, we can easily see the relatively low elevation of the Marikina Valley and the surrounding area, and also the dense settlement on the valley itself.  No wonder, when a an unusually heavy rain falls on the watershed area of the valley, the entire valley will be engulfed with raging flood water. The flood was aggravated by the narrowed waterways because of the dense settlements along them and the domestic and industrial wastes that clogs them. It is not only those areas near the waterways that were severely affected by floods but also those low lying areas surrounding the Laguna de Bay when water level in the lake rises considerably. According to authorities, the normal water level in the lake is about 10 meters but after the tropical storm Ondoy, it is now about 14 meters. Worse, the water level in the lake is expected to go down to its normal level very slowly because the Pasig River which drains the lake to Manila Bay is already silted and clogged. It was estimated that the water level will normalize in about 3 months. We only realize this things now because the disaster happened already and we can only expect even worse disasters as a consequence of global warming and the rapid denudation of our forests. We have learned our lesson, albeit at a very high price.

Now, as an individual real estate investor, we can be wiser now because we can at least get as much physical information on a specific area through Google Earth. This is something we can’t do easily just a few years ago when it was not yet available. Imagine being able to determine the elevation at any given point relative to the mean sea level, or to areas known to be flood prone, or even to the nearby riverbed. With Google Earth, all you have to do is point the cursor to a location on the image and its elevation will be shown. This means we will be able to judge if a particular real estate is flood prone or not because we will be able to identify areas that forms basins.

Of course elevation is not the only consideration in determining the vulnerability of an area to flooding. Other factors such as proximity to natural waterways and availability of flood control infrastuctures should also be considered. Areas with steep slopes (areas with rapid change in elevation) should also be avoided as these areas will be vulnerable to landslides. Ideal area for investment will therefore be those that are relatively high in elevation but do not have steep slopes, far from natural waterways such as creeks and rivers, and of course there is enough drainage facilities.

The flooding brought about by Ondoy should be an eye opener to many developers because I have seen many subdivisions that were flooded even though they seem to have adequate drainage facilities because their concrete perimeter fences acted like small dams that impound water. I know of a couple of subdivisions that demolished portions of their perimeter fences just to release water trapped by those fences. Of course, the residents of adjacent subdivision complained because flood water was diverted to them.

We have just considered one natural phenomenon which is weather related in general and flooding in particular in our search for real estate properties to invest in. What about the other natural phenonmenon like earthquake? About two decades ago, Luzon was rocked by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake which caused significant damage to lives and properties particularly in Baguio and Nueva Ecija. Subsequently, Philvolcs then released a report on the existence of a geological fault line which was called the Marikina Valley Fault System (MVFS). As the name suggests, the fault line traverses Marikina Valley. Not only is the valley flood prone, it is also earthquake prone. Now, what do you think will happen to the value of real estate in the area?